【コロナ】アメリカ＋22802 ロシア＋10899 ブラジル＋8459 日本＋81
How dangerous is the virus?
There are three parameters to understand in order to assess the magnitude of the risk posed by this novel coronavirus:
How contagious is the Wuhan Coronavirus? (Ro)
The attack rate or transmissibility (how rapidly the disease spreads) of a virus is indicated by its reproductive number (Ro, pronounced R-nought or r-zero), which represents the average number of people to which a single infected person will transmit the virus.
WHO's estimated (on Jan. 23) Ro to be between 1.4 and 2.5. [13]
Other studies have estimated a Ro between 3.6 and 4.0, and between 2.24 to 3.58. [23].
Preliminary studies had estimated Ro to be between 1.5 and 3.5. [5][6][7]
An outbreak with a reproductive number of below 1 will gradually disappear.
For comparison, the Ro for the common flu is 1.3 and for SARS it was 2.0.
Fatality Rate (case fatality ratio or CFR) of the Wuhan Coronavirus
See full details: Coronavirus Fatality Rate
The novel coronavirus' case fatality rate has been estimated at around 2%, in the WHO press conference held on January 29, 2020 [16] . However, it noted that, without knowing how many were infected, it was too early to be able to put a percentage on the mortality rate figure.
A prior estimate [9] had put that number at 3%.
Fatality rate can change as a virus can mutate, according to epidemiologists.
For comparison, the case fatality rate for SARS was 10%, and for MERS 34%.
Incubation Period (how long it takes for symptoms to appear)
See full details: COVID-19 Coronavirus Incubation Period
Symptoms of COVID-19 may appear in as few as 2 days or as long as 14 (estimated ranges vary from 2-10 days, 2-14 days, and 10-14 days, see details), during which the virus is contagious but the patient does not display any symptom (asymptomatic transmission).
Age and conditions of Coronavirus cases
See latest findings: Age, Sex, Demographics of COVID-19 Cases and Deaths
According to early estimates by China's National Health Commission (NHC), about 80% of those who died were over the age of 60 and 75% of them had
pre-existing health conditions such as cardiovascular diseases and
diabetes.[24]
According to the WHO Situation Report no. 7 issued on Jan. 27:
ＰＣＲ検査ガーｗｗｗ
欧州はEU脱退したイギリスが一番被害が大きいのか
もはやアメリカ肺炎やん 二度と日本に来るなよ
し、収束してきたんちゃうか？
まともな食い物を食ってないと、コロナの死亡率が上がると妄想してる。
発展途上国でこれから伸びるフェーズだな
アメリカは120万人か こんなに多い理由はなんだろう？
日本って失敗してるの？ 評価は低いじゃん